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                                                                                                                                                                          赌博的最好打法:高盛:美联储可能暂缓加息至2020年美国总统大选之后

                                                                                                                                                                          2019-04-13 10:05 Cits新闻站

                                                                                                                                                                            美国高盛集团12日在给客户的一份报告中预测,美联储近期不会对联邦基金利率目标区间作出调整,下一次加息可能会等到2020年11月美国总统大选之后。同时,2021年美联储或有加息一次。

                                                                                                                                                                            高盛首席经济学家让。哈祖斯(Jan Hatzius)及其他高盛经济学家在报告中说,虽然美联储面临来自白宫要求其放宽货币政策的巨大压力,但在短期内没有经济衰退威胁的情况下,美联储可能没有降息动机。同时,美联储被越来越多地放在“政治聚焦灯”下,对货币政策的决定要经过更严格的政治审查。在这种背景下,美联储在2020年美国总统选举前加息的可能性也进一步降低。

                                                                                                                                                                            此外,2019年以来美国经济表现好于预期,降低了降息的必要性。而通胀保持温和,抵消了进一步收紧政策的必要性。因此,高盛预计美联储近期不会对利率区间作出调整。

                                                                                                                                                                            展望未来,报告认为,今年初笼罩经济前景的下行风险已经减弱,经济成长动力增强,且美联储政策转向已经大部分扭转了此前金融状况收紧的趋势,“尽管近期加息可能性有所降低,但我们仍然认为,下一步(美联储)加息的可能性远远大于降息”。

                                                                                                                                                                            高盛在报告中将今年下半年美国国内生产总值(GDP)增长率上调了0.3个百分点至2.5%,2020年上半年增长率上调至2.25%,2020年下半年和2021年上半年经济增长率则可能在2%。不过,美国通胀率仍然温和,物价上行受到抑制。根据美国劳工部10日公布的数字,3月份美国消费者价格指数(CPI)环比增长0.4%,剔除能源和食品价格的核心CPI环比增长0.1%,均低于市场预期。

                                                                                                                                                                            此前,美国总统特朗普指责美联储加息过快,影响美国经济扩张,并呼吁美联储降息,实施更多量化宽松政策。白宫经济顾问库德洛11日也表示,利率“可能在我有生之年都不会上升”。

                                                                                                                                                                            对此,美联储一直表态将保持独立性,不会受到这些指责的影响。根据彭博社11日援引消息人士的话说,美联储主席鲍威尔在受邀参加经济讨论会议时向民主党议员表示,美联储将保持独立性,不会屈服于政治压力。鲍威尔认为,考虑到目前的经济状况,利率处于合适的水平。